Blackburn and Arsenal; An Unlikely Goalfest?

Neither of these clubs have shown themselves to be very good at defending this season.  In fact, they have often looked like drunken third-graders in defense.  And while both have struggled to score goals at times, it is not hard to see the potential for good attacking play.  Yakubu, even when not match-fit, is still one of the best goal-poachers in the world.  Players like Robin van Persie and Mikel Arteta are always going to be a threat.  Although most people wouldn't expect Alex Song to be playing the incisive through balls.  I have been waiting a year for Arsene Wenger to actually play van Persie with Marouane Chamakh, and when he finally did, the two combined for a goal within ten minutes.

Arsenal v Bolton

If anyone is interested in joining me, I will be watching this match live at the Baker Street Pub, at the corner of 63rd St. and 1st Ave., on the scenic island of Manhattan.  And just to warn you, I will be accompanied by an Arsenal supporter.

As for the match, I must admit I am not especially confident of Bolton getting a result.  I think Bolton will defend fairly well, and I think we will create a fair amount of chances on the break.  Arsenal will have somewhere in the neighborhood of 70% possession, and they will look lovely in their movement and control about 40 yards from Adam Bogdan.  It will be a joy to watch.  Of course, the problem arises when the gunners fail to turn that possession into goals.  Two of the players who specialize in turning the pretty passing into points, Robin van Persie and Theo Walcott, are out with injuries.  That may not be enough to get Bolton any points, but it could help make things nervy for Arsenal fans.

Arsenal

Arsene Wenger only named a 20-man-squad for the first half of the season, primarily because so many of his players are under 21 and do not need to be registered. But it doesn't matter how many players he named in the squad, because none of them is a top class goalkeeper. And without a top class goalkeeper, Arsenal are not going to win the Premier League.

This club certainly has the talent on the field to compete for the league title. But Manuel Almunia is a disaster waiting to happen. I don't know why Arsene Wenger doesn't see it. It must be extremely frustrating for the fans. Hell, it frustrates me, and I am not even an Arsenal fan.

Apparently Wenger finally upped the offer for Mark Schwarzer to £4 million, which Fulham found acceptable, but it was too late for them to find a replacement and get that deal done. This deal could have been done three months ago! Why wait until the last minute and take the chance that it won't go through?

I was almost going to pick the Gunners to win the league this season, especially if they managed to bring in someone like Schwarzer, or even better, Shay Given, but I have zero faith in Almunia, so it looks like another third place finish for the boys from North London.

Title Contenders (Arsenal)

Last season Liverpool Keeper Pepe Reina would have made a simple catch of a Theo Wolcott cross deep in injury time, and Anfield would have exploded in celebration of a 1-0 win over Arsenal. This season new signing Marouane Chamakh went in for a challenge on Reina, caused him to spill the ball, and Arsenal salvaged a 1-1 draw.

We all know Arsenal's biggest problems, the things that have kept them from winning the league the last few seasons, when they clearly had enough talent to do so. I think they have addressed, or are trying to address, all of these issues, and if they do, they will be right in the thick of the title fight come May.

The first and most obvious problem is Manuel Almunia. That's a little harsh on him actually. He is not a horrible keeper, and would probably be adequate at a club like West Brom or Wigan, but he is nowhere near good enough for Arsenal. Arsenal have been linked with Mark Schwarzer, who is slightly better but a lot older, and Shay Given, who is a lot better and a similar age to Almunia. If Arsene Wenger weren't so stubborn he would give Man City whatever they want for Given, but the man is ideologically opposed to paying large transfer fees for older players, and that seems to be particularly true for goalkeepers.

The second problem is the lack of depth in the center of defense. Thomas Vermaelen is an outstanding defender, and new signing Laurent Koscielny looks quite good as well, but there is really nothing beyond that. And I mean nothing. Johann Djourou is the only other senior player with any experience at central defender. After him, Wenger will have to drop a midfielder such as Alex Song into the back line. As luck would have it, Koscielny has already picked up a red card and will be suspended this weekend. Now, I don't think that will impact Arsenal's ability to unceremoniously bring Blackpool back to earth, but eventually they are going to need to cope with injuries and/or suspensions for a more difficult match. As soon as he sorts out the goalkeeping situation, Wenger needs to buy another centre-half, probably two.

Many are a bit more perplexed by the third problem. That is that during a given match, the Arsenal players do not seem particularly interested in scoring goals. This sounds absurd, but you can't watch them play and not come away with this feeling. This team absolutely dominates possession. The technical ability, the pace the movement, the accuracy, it is all a sight to behold. And they create chances, loads of chances, but they so often pass them up, and it is infuriating to watch.

The unwillingness to shoot is so ridiculous at times that it is frustrating for people who don't even support Arsenal. They ping the ball around, 15 or 20 yards from goal, creating opening after opening, yet never taking a shot. The second half against ten-man Liverpool was a prime example. Arsenal were down 1-0 to a Champion's League rival, and they barely took any shots. If Manchester United or Chelsea were down 1-0 and a man up in the second half, they would be taking a shot every 15 seconds. You watch these clubs and you see 25 or 30 efforts on goal, every match. With Arsenal it is shocking if they reach double digits in shots on goal.

There are some players in the squad that will shoot, particularly from distance. Most important are Cesc Fabregas and Robin van Persie. Let's face it, we all know how different Arsenal play when those two are fit and on form. And I think this is why Chamakh has been brought in. He is a goal scorer, in talent and in mindset. All the Gunners have to do is take a few shots early in a match from 25 or 30 yards out. Just the threat of it forces defenders to come out and attempt to close them down, which leaves more room for them to get behind and create the tap-ins they seem to prefer.

All things considered, this club is a threat to win every trophy it is competing for this season, but I just can't see the succeeding with an upgrade at goalkeeper and two new central defenders. I doubt Arsene Wenger values my opinion very much, but he has two weeks to convince me Arsenal will win the title this season, and end their well-publicized drought.

Arsenal v Barcelona update

Injuries are really going to have an effect on the first leg of this tie. Andres Iniesta, Barcelona's extremely influential Spanish midfielder/forward, is out of today's match, and probably a doubt for the return leg next week. This is important because it is Iniesta who links play between the midfield and the strikers. Argentinians often wonder why Lionel Messi looks so much more impressive for Barcelona than he does when playing for his country, and I think the answer is he has Iniesta to get him the ball for his club.

Several other Barcelona players are either questionable or just returning from injury, including Xavi Hernandez and Gerard Pique.

Arsenal always seems to have an injury crisis, and today is no different. Andrey Arshavin and Samir Nasri, who tore Porto apart in Arsenal's last Champions League encounter, are both expected to be available despite slight injuries. Cesc Fabregas is very questionable though. He was injured against Birmingham at the weekend. I like Arsene Wenger, but just as with Robben and Bayern Munich, I have to ask why Fabregas was not rested at the weekend with such a critical match this week.

Arsenal's most important injury doubt may be William Gallas, who was expected to miss the quarterfinal entirely, but has surprised everyone by returning to training this week. He is in the squad tonight, but no one knows if he will feature in the match. Thomas Vermaelen will anchor the back line for Wenger, but without Gallas he doesn't really appear to have a worthy partner.

I predicted that Arsenal would win in London, and I am sticking with that prediction.