Why I am not a Gambler...

So my prediction of Arsenal winning the Champions League seems not to have worked out. That is no real surprise to be honest, it is hard to go against Barcelona, and almost impossible when Messi is on form in the way he was last night. Next they will come up against Inter Milan, where Jose Mourinho will likely resort to the "anti-football" that everyone hates him for.

Tonight's all French tie is a bit more straightforward, as Bordeaux are unlikely to overturn a 3-1 deficit. They do have an away goal though, so if they go up 1-0 things could get a little dicey for Lyon.

Champions League Draw - Lyon v Bordeaux

There will be a French team in the semi-finals, this much we know. And whether that club plays Bayern Munich or Manchester United, be prepared for WWII jokes aplenty as well as ironically worn berets and striped black and white shirts.

The first leg will be in Lyon, just as it was when they played Real Madrid. Bordeaux won't underestimate Lyon in the way Madrid did though. Both sides are relatively attack-minded and strong through the middle of the pitch. Some might give Lyon a slight edge as they have been to this stage of the Champions League relatively recently, but most of the those players have long since left the club.

Gourcuff runs things from the middle for Bordeaux, and if Lyon can shut him down, they will shut down Bordeaux. I like Chamakh, I think he is a good striker, but he is not the type to create too much for himself, he will be dependent on service from the midfield. I favor Lyon in this match-up. They shut down Kaka over two legs, and he does a lot of the same things Gourcuff does.

Another interesting thing in this tie will be what type of formation Lyon play. They have a lot of attacking talent, and could certainly play with two, or even three up top if they want to. That is unlikely though. I feel like these matches will show us a lot of possession in the opponents half for both clubs, but few good chances created. I think Lyon will win the first match at home, although Bordeaux might snatch an away goal. Regardless, I think Lyon will hold on in Bordeaux and advance to the semi-final.

UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals

The teams are set. Who plays who will be determined Friday morning.

CSKA Moscow are probably the team everybody wants to play, the least known and the least respected, a midget amongst the giants of European football. I suspect they will give whomever they face a real scare, but will lack enough to go through in the end.

Bordeux are also not expected to pose any real threat, but I think against the right team (Bayern Munich or Manchester United?) they could pull of a shocker. Gourcuff is capable of unlocking any defense, and their defending in Europe has been superb.

Lyon are also not fancied (The French clubs never are), but they seem to have a certain look about them. It would be ironic if the least talented Lyon side of the last decade advances the furthest in the Champions League. Arsenal or Barcelona would tear them apart, but if I were Bayern or Inter Milan I would not want to face them.

Bayern Munich are an attacking force on paper. Schweinsteiger, Olic, Gomez, Mueller, and/or Klose through the middle with Ribery and Robben on either wing should lead to a goal bonanza most weeks. But it doesn't. Frankly, they shouldn't even be here. Fiorentina were the better side over two legs, and the German club only advanced because a blatantly offside goal was allowed in Munich.

Inter Milan have all the talent in the world (as usual) but still play the dreadfully boring Jose Mourinho style of football. They have not played well in quite a while. I can't see them winning the tournament, but they should get to a semi-final unless they draw one of the clubs below.

Manchester United are not very good. I watch them almost every week, and they seem to always be outplayed. But somehow Wayne Rooney pops up with another goal, or a ball ricochets into the net off Paul Scholes' ass or an opponents knee. As I said, they are not that good, but they may be the luckiest side I have ever seen. I think they are through if they draw anyone besides Barcelona. The French teams could cause them trouble, but the French striker will get sent off and Fletcher will mis-hit a ball off 6 defenders and into goal to put them through.

Arsenal are my pick to win the competition. I just think they are the most talented team overall. Their downfall could be that Almunia is a bit shaky in goal, but when it comes to attacking talent, they are second to none, and I think their defense is a lot more reliable than Bayern Munich's or even Barcelona's.

Barcelona are the consensus favorite to retain their title, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they did so, but this year's squad seems to be lacking something. It reminds me a bit of Chelsea the last two seasons. The talent is there, strength and depth at every position, a good manager, but I just don't trust them.

We will have a better idea of each club's chances very soon, when the draw is completed.

Real Madrid

When I saw Sergio Ramos at centre-back I suspected Madrid would have some problems, and they did. In fact, they made a defensive substitution and moved Ramos to right back at halftime. Madrid's players looked as though they believe they are entitled to advancement into the next round. An interesting attitude considering it has been six years since they have advanced beyond the round of 16. Lyon's players showed no fear and made it clear early on that Los Galacticos would have to work if they wanted anything out of this match.