USA Win Group C, England Advance!

You will all have to excuse me if I am a little discombobulated, I have just got off a two hour roller coaster ride. Wow!

The disjointed, disinterested, disappointing English squad of the last two weeks was nowhere to be found today. Fabio Cappello made a couple changes, nothing too drastic. The English tabloids wanted Joe Cole, but he was the same place he has been for most of the competition, on the bench.

England scored early, and dominated possession for most of the match. Slovenia had a few decent moments, but looked nothing like the team the US played against a few days ago. This result was in little doubt.

That left the USA needing a victory over Algeria. This match was bit more even, although the US created loads of good chances. They even had a good goal ruled out for the second time in this tournament. They left it late. Boy, did they ever leave it late!

If the US is to continue to perform well in this tournament, Landon Donavon will have to put the team on his back and carry them. He is their best player, their most talented player, their most experienced player, and now he needs to be their leader.

Dour Predictions

I am afraid it is going to be a sad day in the states. England beat Slovenia, the US draw with Algeria, and the two European countries go through. I hope I am wrong, but the US team has just been too inconsistent to make me think they can breakdown an Algerian side that is very adept at holding the ball and slowing the game down.

Group C

This is the one that everybody in the US is playing special attention to. It was thought that English speaking countries would waltz through to the knockout stages, leaving the smaller countries of Slovenia and Algeria in the dust. Boy was that wrong.

I actually theorized on a way that these countries could cause some mischief in an earlier entry, but I still didn't give them enough credit. Slovenia are in the driver's seat. A draw against England puts them through. A victory puts them through as group winners. They could lose and still go through depending on what happens in the other match.

England are through if they win, but need a lot of help if they draw. This is not an ideal situation, but they do still control their own destiny.

Algeria need to win and hope that England don't win.

The US are in with a win. They need help if they draw, but likely go through ahead of England if both draw.

It will be an interesting Wednesday morning, to say the least.

USA vs. England

After a brilliant first day of the 2010 World Cup, we are ready for the clash most of the English speaking world has been looking forward to for 6 months.

I was quietly confident, and had been predicting a draw for the past several months, but I have been losing this confidence in the last couple days. I fear the talent gulf may just be too great.

What I have also been saying is that the USA needs to come out aggressive if they want to have a chance. Put out a positive, attacking team and take it right to England and their questionable defense, while keeping Wayne Rooney and co. away from the USA's own dodgy defense. But there have been several reports in the last few days that Bob Bradley is going to put out a defensive team and basically play for 0-0. I don't know why so many soccer coaches still think this tactic works, because it never does. Every time there is a big upset and the revisionist narrative becomes accepted in the media, people never actually look at the game itself.

So here is my conclusion. If Bradley plays some ridiculously conservative 4-5-1 formation with a Maurice Edu, Ricardo Clark, Michael Bradley midfield, then the US will lose 4-0. If Jose Torres and/or Stuart Holden feature in a more attacking midfield set-up with Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan pushing ahead in a front three, I predict a 1-1 draw.

World Cup - England - Part 2

John Terry and Rio Ferdinand have been partners in the England defense for a long time. Maybe too long. I think if you watched video of all the England defenders from this past season, and you couldn't see their faces nor did you know their reputation, you wouldn't even have Terry and Ferdinand in the squad.

Some may argue that their experience and guile makes them better choices than some of the younger central defenders who have had better seasons, but I think talent has to win out at the end of the day.

The same issue arises when one considers Jamie Carragher, whom Fabio Cappello has convinced to rejoin the England Squad. Carragher had a poor season. And he had a poor season in 2008-2009. When you are 32 years old and have had two consecutive bad seasons, you are not in a poor run of form, you are on the decline. There are ten English defenders better than Carragher, and most of them were nowhere near getting in this squad.

Gareth Barry is the holding midfielder, and he is a very good one. He shields the back four, is a great tackler, distributes the ball marvelously, which links the defense and attack, and he will also chip in with the odd goal. There is a problem though. He has a pretty serious ankle injury, that will keep him out of the opening match against the US, and possibly more matches after that.

Barry will be replaced in one of two ways. Michael Carrick could play the holding role. But he is not very good. Otherwise, Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard could both play in the middle, with one of them dropping deep. As you can see, neither of these is an especially good option. This won't be enough of a hindrance to keep England from advancing to the knockout stages, but they will need a fit and on form Gareth Barry of they want to progress much farther than that.

That leaves the fullbacks. Ashley Cole and Glen Johnson will start and play 90 minutes every game, so depth is not an issue. Neither defends especially well, but they have such outstanding speed that they can usually cover up for their mistakes.

If England win Group C, and most of the other groups go as expected, their road to the semi-finals is free of traditional powers. This may be the best chance for Merry Old England to lift the World Cup trophy since 1970. Will they? I doubt it, I think the lack of pace in the center of defense will be their undoing, but the chance is there.

World Cup - England - Part 1

Some would argue that in Fabio Cappello England have their best manager ever entering a major tournament. They may be right, but the country famously underestimates everybody, and if England don't win 4-0 every time out and look good doing it, the second guessing starts and the doubt creeps in.

But that is enough armchair psychology, let's look at the squad. I will start with the attack, then handle the defense in Part 2. In England's attack, one name stands far above all others, that of Wayne Rooney. If Rooney is fit and on form, England could go a long way in this tournament. The big question on the lips of the Limeys is, "Who, if anyone, should partner Rooney?" Peter Crouch? Emile Heskey? Jermain Defoe? Or should England play a 4-5-1, with Steven Gerrard and/or Frank Lampard pushing up behind Rooney?

My choice would be a 4-5-1 with Gerrard pushed up almost next to Rooney. Why? Steven Gerrard is a formation killer. He has no discipline, and cannot be counted on to fulfill any defensive responsibilities. He has to play, as does Lampard. Even Cappello would not drop one of them. But when Gerrard gets pushed out to the wing, left or right, he still wanders all over the field. This leaves one of England's attack-minded fullbacks (Glen Johnson and Ashley Cole) exposed, and neither of them has the defensive acumen to succeed in that position.

What will be interesting is finding out who plays on the wings for England. Joe Cole was a big part of the last World Cup on the left wing, but he is unlikely to make the squad this time around. Gerrard may be pushed out to the left, but as I stated earlier, that creates other problems. Aaron Lennon, Theo Wolcott, and James Milner are all right-footed, but capable of playing on the left.

The real wild card here is the left-footed youngster from Manchester City, Adam Johnson. He is quick, has very good technique, loves to cut inside and shoot when playing on the right, and is very aggressive when he is on the pitch. There is no guarantee he will even make the final twenty-three man squad, but if he does, he could have a big part to play in South Africa.

That leaves the right wing, wide open for the first time in 15 years after David Beckham suffered a long-term injury while playing for AC Milan. Beckham has always had his detractors, critics eager to show their daggers when given even the slightest chance. I don't belong to this group. I think Beckham has been an outstanding servant for club and country, and he will be sorely missed at this World Cup. But someone must fill his position. The early favorite seems to be Aaron Lennon. I will be honest, I don't rate him very highly. I think both Wolcott and Milner are better players. Out of all the candidates on the wing, Milner is the most versatile and has the most complete game. It will be surprising if he doesn't have a big role to play throughout the tournament.

World Cup - Algeria & Slovenia

I'll be honest, I know very little about these teams. They have both pulled off some big upsets in recent times. Algeria defeated Egypt to qualify for the tournament, and they knocked The Ivory Coast out of the last African Cup of Nations. Slovenia won the two-legged playoff against a very talented Russian team to qualify.

Both teams have a few players sprinkled around the bigger leagues in Europe, though none at big clubs within those leagues. And Algeria's best attacking player is out with injury.

It all comes down to this; The most important match for both these countries is their opener against each other. If one or the other manages to get 3 points from that match, that puts extra pressure on the US and England.

For example, let's say the US and England draw, then the US beat Slovenia and England draw against Algeria. Going into the final match, the US and Algeria would each have 4 points, England 2, and Slovenia none. Depending on goal difference, a US/Algeria draw might put both countries through. I am not saying this is likely to happen, in fact I am pretty much certain it won't, but my point is that if either of these "minnows" wins the opening match, one or both of the English speaking countries in the group could be in a difficult situation.

World Cup - The United States of America - Part 3

This is it for the US Preview, and here I will deal with the strikers. To be honest, it's the easiest part. Jozy Altidore is talented, and he has such an amazing physique that he is almost unplayable when on form. But he is not a big time goal scorer. And he is very young and inexperienced.

He will start for the US. I would start Clint Dempsey up top with him, but Bob Bradley may leave Altidore up there on his own.

And the rest of the strikers on the US squad; Not good enough. Nowhere near good enough.

The one who was good enough, and whose emergence during the USA's qualifying campaign was huge, is Charlie Davies. Unfortunately, his celebration of qualification involved a friend driving drunk. Davies was severely injured in the resulting car crash, missed the remainder of the season for his club, Sochaux in France, and still is nowhere near fit to play in a high level football match. The Yanks will really miss him.

Herculez Gomez led the Mexican league in scoring, but he is 28 years old, and this is the first real success he has had. If he can continue to show the ability to finish he might be a useful late game substitute. If he scores only 1 goal, and it is a late goal that secures a draw against England, or a win against Slovenia, his inclusion will be justified, but I think that is the absolute ceiling of what we can expect from him.

All told, the US goals will have to come largely from the midfield. If Altidore can effectively hold up play and get his midfielders the ball moving forward, the US should score enough goals to advance out of the group stage. Unfortunately, the second position in this group will probably play Germany in the round of sixteen. On the other hand, if the US were to get something against England and win the group, it looks like a much easier road to the semi-finals.

I am predicting a draw on June 12th, 1-1, but England will most likely still win the group. Getting into the knockout stages will be a solid performance from this team, especially after a disappointing 2006.

World Cup - The United States of America - Part 2

The strength of the US lies in the midfield. There is a large group of experienced, skillful, and versatile European-based players. Landon Donavan leads the group, and he will probably play on the left wing throughout the tournament. Michael Bradley, although young, has loads of experience from his time in Holland and Germany, and he will anchor the central midfield. Clint Dempsey has really matured since his move to Fulham, and he will spend most of his time on the right side of midfield, although I would push him up front to play off Jozy Altidore.

These three players are guaranteed to start every match. There are several good candidates for the fourth (and possibly fifth) position(s) in the midfield. Bradley will sit deep in the central midfield, but he will spend a lot of time in attack, and he is not really a holding midfielder anyway. This makes it just about certain that defensive-minded manager Bob Bradley will deploy a traditional defensive midfielder alongside Michael Bradley.

There are two principal candidates for this position; Maurice Edu, who plays for Rangers, and Ricardo Clark, who plays (rarely) for Eintracht Frankfurt in Germany. I strongly favor Edu. He is more experienced, more composed on the ball, and far less likely to get sent off. Clark, in fact, is a red card waiting to happen. Those of you with long memories might recall him being sent off for his reckless (and recklessly stupid) challenge on Gennaro Gattuso against Italy in last summer's Confederation's Cup.

If Bob Bradley decides to play a 4-3-3 or 4-5-1, there will be room for another attacking midfielder. This could be an opportunity for one of a few exciting youngsters.

A lot of people would like to see Benny Feilhaber start for the US if this position is available. I don't like him. Just like everyone else, I was excited about his talent when he burst onto the scene. But then he failed at Hamburg. Then he made a big move to Derby, and he failed at Derby. At the same time, he was dropped from the US team because his ego couldn't fit through the door to the changing room. Then he went to Denmark, and he has struggled to make an impression on a team that was relegated in the Danish league. Not a player I want on my team.

I saw Jose Torres play an excellent forty-five minutes against the Czech Republic Tuesday night. He is very composed on the ball, even when under pressure, he is a good passer, and he chips in with the occasional goal. I like him, but there is a problem. He is tiny. 5'5", 135 pounds tiny. He just won't be able to cope with the likes of Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard in the middle of the park. As a change of pace for the final 20 minutes, I think he will be outstanding, but I just can't see him playing ninety minutes against a physically imposing team like England.

The third promising youngster, and the player whom I think is really going to break out at the World Cup, is Stuart Holden. Now, you may think I am biased because he is a Bolton player, but I had little hope and no expectations that he would be anything more than a reserve team player when Owen Coyle signed him in January. And it looked like I was right when he didn't even make the bench his first month at the club.

But then he got fit, made two game-changing substitute appearances, and was dominant in his first start for the Wanderers. He started against Holland for the US in a friendly and for the first twenty-five minutes he was the most dangerous looking player on the pitch. Then Nigel de Jong broke his leg. But now he is back.

He played 90 minutes against the Czech Republic, half on the wing, half in central midfield, and he was, again, the best player on the pitch. I predict that Holden will be a star. He might not start the first match for the US, but by the final match of the group stage, he will be in the starting XI, no doubt about it.

There is one more wild card in the US midfield; DeMarcus Beasley. He has had an up and down career, and will likely never live up to his potential because of his inconsistency, but he may be crucial to the USA's chances in this World Cup. His experience, his ability to play several positions, his pace, and his knack for scoring (and creating) important goals will be huge coming off the bench.

World Cup - The United States of America - Part 1

I watched a match last night in sunny East Hartford, Connecticut, but there were few bright spots on the pitch. The US is going to the World Cup while the Czech Repiblic is not, but you couldn't have known that based on the performance. The American crowd of over 36,000 was fired up, but they went home disappointed.

Neither team was at full strength, and it is no surprise that the European side has more depth than the Americans, but well-known weaknesses became even more glaring in a poor second half for the Yanks.

Left back is looking like a serious problem. Heath Pearce and Jonathan Bornstein are both terrible, and neither should be anywhere near the continent of Africa in June. That leaves Carlos Bocanegra and Jonathan Spector. Bocanegra is the team captain, and plays left back for Rennes in France, so he would seem the obvious choice. But he may have to slide into the middle because of health issues with Oguchi Onyewu and Jay Demerit. If that happens, Spector will probably start at LB. He is adequate, but it is not his natural position, and he doesn't give much going forward. If everybody is fit and in form, the back line of Bocanegra (LB), Onyewu (CB), Demerit (CB), and either Spector or Steve Cherundolo on the right, should be solid enough to get the US through group C.

Defense is going to be an issue though, and that puts a huge amount of pressure on goalkeeper Tim Howard. A friend recently told me he considers Howard to be 1 of the top 5 goalkeepers in the world. I am not prepared to go that far, but he is probably in the top 10. That is important. Those of you who remember the US's improbably run to the quarterfinals in 2002 will know that Brad Friedel was unbelievable in that tournament, and a big part of the success the Yanks enjoyed in South Korea and Japan. Tim Howard is certainly capable of a similar performance.