Blackburn and Arsenal; An Unlikely Goalfest?

Neither of these clubs have shown themselves to be very good at defending this season.  In fact, they have often looked like drunken third-graders in defense.  And while both have struggled to score goals at times, it is not hard to see the potential for good attacking play.  Yakubu, even when not match-fit, is still one of the best goal-poachers in the world.  Players like Robin van Persie and Mikel Arteta are always going to be a threat.  Although most people wouldn't expect Alex Song to be playing the incisive through balls.  I have been waiting a year for Arsene Wenger to actually play van Persie with Marouane Chamakh, and when he finally did, the two combined for a goal within ten minutes.

The Long Slow Sunset of Kevin Davies

For the last ten years, through four managers and hundreds of matches, Kevin Davies has pretty much been the first name on the teamsheet for Bolton Wanderers.  He has never been seriously injured, and has served as club captain for the last few seasons.  There were a few occasions when Davies had to be shoehorned into the team as a right winger, but for the most part, he has earned his position on merit.  Never a prolific goal-scorer, he has been an effective player none-the-less, creating opportunities for teammates and managing several 10 plus goal seasons.

It has always been a delicate balance for KD though.  The manager has had to calculate the perpetual fouling, the easily given up possession, and the poor finishing in front of goal, then compare it to the myriad of headers and resulting flick-ons, the numerous free kicks won, and fairly reliable ten goals a season.  Unfortunately, in the last year or so, Davies' scale has finally tipped in the wrong direction.  At this point, Owen Coyle is playing his skipper purely based on reputation.

It's All in The Finish

A few years ago Manchester United beat Roma 7-1 in a Champions League match at Old Trafford.  If you watched the match though, the reds did not look particularly dominant.  They had the same amount of possession as Roma, and Roma actually created more chances.  So why was it such a shellacking?  Finishing.  Manchester United had 7 shots and scored 7 goals.

Yesterday at the Reebok, Manchester United had 11 shots on goal.  6 were blocked by Bolton defenders, 5 found the back of the net.  Now don't get me wrong, Manchester United is playing tremendous football right now, but they are going to come back to earth at some point.  The club has some tremendous finishers, but this level of efficiency is just not sustainable.

To give some context, the top goal-scorers in the world, the big names that everyone knows, score a goal for every 5 shots, about a 20% success rate.  Wayne Rooney, for example, in 2009-2010, had 40 goals in all competitions.  It took him 257 shots to get those goals.  That's about 15%.  In 2010-2011, he had 17 goals on 169 shots.  That's about 10%.  This season, he already has 11 goals on only 44 shots.  That's 25%, and that is not going to continue.

Robin van Persie was at 19% last season.  Darren Bent, coming off of 2 straight twenty-goal seasons, is at about 20% over that time period.  Didier Drogba's best season was 2009-2010, when he scored a phenomenal 44 goals.  That took him 222 shots, a conversion rate of just under 20%.

Now, you might expect the top of the pile to be better than that.  Cristiano Ronaldo has 4 straight thirty-goal seasons under his belt.  Last season he scored a mind boggling 56 goals, including 40 in 32 league matches.  His conversion rate?  16%.  And Leo Messi?  He has 100 goals in his last 2 seasons.  He has taken just under 500 shots in that period.  20%.

My point?  5 goals from 11 shots against Bolton.  8 goals from 25 shots against Arsenal.  This is not going to continue.  We are more likely to see performances similar to what United did against Tottenham, wins, and for the most part comfortable wins, but 3 goals instead of 5 or 8.

What about Bolton?  They scored 4 goals from 18 shots against QPR.  Then 2 goals from 7 shots against Manchester City.  2 goals on 18 shots against Macclesfield in a Carling Cup match, and 1 goal from 10 shots against Liverpool.  Yesterday, in the debacle against United, Bolton did not score even though they took 22 shots.  Results from the last few weeks aside, I am no worried about Wanderers ability to score goals.  I am worried about our ability to prevent them.

It's a Mindset

At the height of the Allardyce era Bolton finished level on points with Liverpool.  Goal difference gave the Reds the fifth spot in the table, while Bolton had to settle for sixth and a UEFA Cup spot.  At that point Wanderers were routinely taking points of "top 4" clubs and many supporters probably considered us on level ground with the likes of Liverpool (The feeling was not mutual, as Liverpool fans don't consider anyone to be on level ground with them).

Then the dark times began, and the manager did not even attempt to compete with clubs like Liverpool.

Now, Bolton are back.  There is not the talent level, nor the results of the Allardyce era, at least not yet, but the thinking has returned.  This is very important.  Under the Ginger Mourinho, lip service was paid, working hard for the cause and all that, but fans and players both knew we didn't stand a chance.

What Owen Coyle has brought to the club, more important than his eye for talent or tactical acumen, is the belief, the mindset, that we can win every week.  Not steal a point, not avoid embarrassing ourselves, actually beat clubs, no matter their position in the table.

This should be very interesting at Anfield today.  My prediction; 2-2.

Morality Play?

Bolton has signed a new sponsorship deal.  They call it a partnership these days, but it's with a company from Korea called Hanwha to be a new sponsor at the Reebok.  Hanwha will be placing advertisements around the stadium espousing their advances in solar energy.  Sounds good right?  Wanderers can always use the money from something like this.  There is a problem though.  Hanwha produces landmines.  Or to be fair, they produced landmines in the past, and may still do so.

No matter what one's political affiliation, I think we can agree on landmines being one of the most horrible inventions in human history.  South Korea is one of the few industrialized countries in the world that still allows the production of landmines, although the government claims none have been manufactured since 2000.

Either way, questions remain.  Are Hanwha's profits blood-money?  Should Bolton Wanderers not only accept that money, but enter into a "partnership" with this company?  Have Hanwha done anything wrong in manufacturing a product to meet worldwide demand?

Carling Cup - Bolton v Macclesfield

Owen Coyle said he was going use our entire squad today in the 2nd round of the Carling Cup, and this was true.  Tuncay Sanli's debut performance was the big story, and there are a lot of other places where you can read about that.  I prefer to focus on some of Coyle's more interesting choices, today and in the future.  A few inclusions were obvious; Mark Davies, Darren Pratley, David Wheater, and Adam Bogdan were definitely going to play from the start.

We miss you Stuart!

Wheater and Bogdan have clearly defined roles, they are the third-choice central defender and second-choice keeper, respectively.  They are good players, and could start for several clubs in the Premier League, but the men in front of them are entrenched.

It is a very different story for Mark Davies and Darren Pratley.  And this will be an important story throughout the season.  For most of last season, central midfield was our strength.  Stuart Holden, Mark Davies and Fabrice Muamba were always formidable, and often dominant.  Then Holden got injured.  Then Davies got injured.  Then our lack of depth got exposed.  Coyle was determined not to let that happen again.  He has signed Nigel Reo-Coker as well as Pratley for central midfield depth.

Great Match!

Shame about the result.  Bolton lost, yes, but they did present themselves in an admirable manner, particularly in the last 30 minutes.

And no, I do not know what the hell Jussi Jaaskelainen was doing on the Silva goal.  Sometimes a goalkeeper, no matter how reliable, just has a howler.  Normally I don't talk about fashion on the blog, but the new home keeper's shirt is just atrocious.  Hot pink?  What is this, a Poison concert in 1987?

For me, the most impressive performance was that of Martin Petrov.  That was why we signed him.  When he is fit and on form, he is still one of the best wingers in the league.  Now, he is not going to be that good, especially for 90 minutes, in all 38 league matches this season.  But if he can keep putting in those types of crosses fairly consistently, he is going to create a lot of goals for us.  His accuracy of passing, combined with Ivan Klasnic's finishing skills, will create a lot of goals for Bolton Wanderers this season.

Next is a Carling Cup match with Macclesfield, followed by a visit to "high-flying" Liverpool.  Given the lack of squad depth at Bolton, it will be interesting to see if Owen Coyle presents an opportunity to some of our really young players Wednesday, or mostly sticks to the first team.

Preview-Bolton Wanderers v Manchester City

Bolton and Man City are both coming off big 4-0 wins last weekend, but the ability of the two clubs to maintain those types of performances is, of course, quite different.

The match is at the Reebok, but so far this season home teams have not faired very well.  This fixture also starts a very difficult run for the Trotters.  After City, there is an early midweek Carling Cup tie against Macclesfield.  I would say this will give some of the fringe players a chance to impress, but given our injury list and relatively lean squad, there are not a whole lot of fringe players to use.  Either way, Macclesfield should be dealt with.  Maybe Tuncay Sanli will get his first start, and that will be reason enough to tune in.

That's when it gets tricky.  Bolton are away at Liverpool next weekend, and while I don't believe the Merseyside club is a title challenger, they are unlikely to allow the Wanderers to pick up 3 points.  The international break is then followed by a visit from Manchester United.  United will probably win via an Own Goal, a penalty, a dodgy sending off, and 11 minutes of stoppage time.

Question: What the Hell is a Frimpong?

Answer: A holding midfielder for Arsenal football club who is quite exciting going forward but tackles late and recklessly.  Not to be confused with a Song, a Diaby, a Flameini, or a Viera.

In all seriousness, Arsenal looked very young and inexperienced in their loss to Liverpool at the Emirates today.  The refrain in the media regarding this result for the home team is going to something along the lines of "same old Arsenal," and that is not wrong.

But the second, louder cry amongst a certain segment of the English football viewing population is going to "Liverpool is back," or "The Reds are a title contender," etc.

Don't believe this.  It's just not true.  Liverpool are not title contenders.  They are not even close.  I even made a small wager yesterday that they would finish below both Manchester clubs in the final table.  I can't wait to try on my shiny new Bolton shirt next May.

Liverpool have several weaknesses, and they start at the back.  If I thought that Daniel Agger and Martin Skrtel would be the regular partnership for central defense at Anfield, I might give them a tiny chance, instead of no chance.  But it will be a cold day in hell before "Anfield Legend" Kenny Dalglish drops "Legendary Scouser" Jamie Carragher from the starting XI.   And Carragher is terrible.  he was always wildly overrated, but now he is a shell of his former  half-decent-defensively self.

What a Start!!!

As I wrote yesterday, Gary Cahill is top class.  Owen Coyle says he wants to offer him a new contract, and that negotiations are ongoing.  The next few weeks will show whether the Scot is being sincere, or trying to drive up the price (A frugal Scotsman, what a shock).

That said, QPR did create some chances, and Bolton will need to tighten up the defending a bit, as much as is possible when carrying the useless sack of meat that is Paul Robinson up and down the pitch.  I saw two weaknesses yesterday, and Robinson was definitely one of them.  He just provides very little going forward, and is a train wreck defensively.  Just about every threat comes from his side.  And the attacks in the middle have every space, because Cahill and Zat Knight shift to their left to cover for Robinson.  Getting beat and then fouling (pictured, right) seems to be the only task Robinson is capable of completing.

Great Result yesterday, but please Owen, drop Paul Robinson!

The second problem, there is no pace in our strikeforce, none.  Robbie Blake is still on his way to the other end of the pitch.  Ivan Klasnic is a great finisher, as he showed yesterday, but he needs someone with pace to play off of.  And Kevin Davies needs to be dropped.  The ratio of balls won to possessions given away plus fouls conceded has swung decisively into our opponents favor.  I would bring Tuncay into the starting XI short-term, but long term we need a pacy striker with an eye for goal to partner Klasnic.

Bolton's Starting XI vs. Queen's Park Rangers

And so it begins...

Owen Coyle's first line-up is posted, and there is no doubt the manager has been hamstrung by injuries to Stuart Holden, Lee Chung-yong, Sam Ricketts, and Tyrone Mears.  Tuncay will not be available as his work permit has not cleared.  Now I don't know Coyle's plans, but for me, all 5 of those players would be starting if they were fit.  So here is a look at what the gaffer has conjured up with our remaining squad players;

Dark Clouds are gathering...

...two weeks before the new season starts.  The Wanderers are in danger of falling behind the pack very early this year.  First of all, the early schedule is brutal, absolutely brutal.  Our first game is what you never want to open the season, a promoted team away.  Fired-up fans, fired-up players, and usually a nervy draw that looks bad later in the year when others are getting 3 points at will.

After that, we run the northwest gauntlet, City-Liverpool-United.  It's quite possible Bolton could have no points after 4 matches.

Another USA tour

And once again the Wanderers come nowhere near where I live.  Oh well.  The important players aren't really fit yet anyway, and I suspect we will make a couple significant signings in late August.

So I guess I didn't miss too much...

Still, it would be nice if they came to New York at some point.

Gardner Stays

Ricardo Gardner may have been born in Jamaica, whom I am watching play the US in the Gold Cup semi-fina this afternoon, but he now calls Bolton home.  It was this stability, and his family's comfort with the northwest, that caused Bibi to turn down Sam Allardyce's offer of a big money contract with West Ham and stay at Bolton for less money.

I have always liked Gardner, but he is no longer the marauding left-back that may have been the best in the premiership for a year or two under Big Sam.  At 32, his extraordinary pace robbed by age and injury, he is little more than a role player, versatile and good for depth, but not to be relied upon.  Realistically, if Gardner makes more than ten appearances next season, it is probably not a good sign for Bolton.  That said, it will be nice to have him around.

Fare Thee Well Dear Wanderers...

Word has been leaking out that Bolton have offered some players new contracts while letting others go.  Robbie Blake has a deal for next season.  Ricardo Gardner has been offered something (with a rather severe pay cut I would imagine) and he has a decision to make.

Jlloyd Samuel has been cut loose.  I don't quite understand why he has been frozen out by Coyle, especially in favor of Paul Robinson.  When Samuel was first choice two season ago, he had a fine year, and he was a big part of the reason we stayed up.  Maybe he is just too much to deal with off the pitch.

Joey O'Brien is leaving as well.  Thinking about him just makes me sad.  Whenever he was fit, all four of our recent managers made him first choice in central midfield, and he always played well.  He simply couldn't stay on the field.  Some bodies just aren't built for the abuse of professional sports.  I hope the change of scenery does him good, perhaps he can build a career somewhere else.

I am sad to see Tamir Cohen go as well.  He was never going to be first choice at a Premier League club with top 10 ambitions, but I thought he was decent midfield depth. 

Let's just hope Owen Coyle can bring in some upgrades this summer.