Blackburn and Arsenal; An Unlikely Goalfest?

Neither of these clubs have shown themselves to be very good at defending this season.  In fact, they have often looked like drunken third-graders in defense.  And while both have struggled to score goals at times, it is not hard to see the potential for good attacking play.  Yakubu, even when not match-fit, is still one of the best goal-poachers in the world.  Players like Robin van Persie and Mikel Arteta are always going to be a threat.  Although most people wouldn't expect Alex Song to be playing the incisive through balls.  I have been waiting a year for Arsene Wenger to actually play van Persie with Marouane Chamakh, and when he finally did, the two combined for a goal within ten minutes.

Question: What the Hell is a Frimpong?

Answer: A holding midfielder for Arsenal football club who is quite exciting going forward but tackles late and recklessly.  Not to be confused with a Song, a Diaby, a Flameini, or a Viera.

In all seriousness, Arsenal looked very young and inexperienced in their loss to Liverpool at the Emirates today.  The refrain in the media regarding this result for the home team is going to something along the lines of "same old Arsenal," and that is not wrong.

But the second, louder cry amongst a certain segment of the English football viewing population is going to "Liverpool is back," or "The Reds are a title contender," etc.

Don't believe this.  It's just not true.  Liverpool are not title contenders.  They are not even close.  I even made a small wager yesterday that they would finish below both Manchester clubs in the final table.  I can't wait to try on my shiny new Bolton shirt next May.

Liverpool have several weaknesses, and they start at the back.  If I thought that Daniel Agger and Martin Skrtel would be the regular partnership for central defense at Anfield, I might give them a tiny chance, instead of no chance.  But it will be a cold day in hell before "Anfield Legend" Kenny Dalglish drops "Legendary Scouser" Jamie Carragher from the starting XI.   And Carragher is terrible.  he was always wildly overrated, but now he is a shell of his former  half-decent-defensively self.

Champions League Thoughts

Partizan Belgrade and Arsenal played a very strange match.  Three penalties, two missed, as well as some strange goals, and other questionable challenges, all added to Arsenal's usual reluctance to punish inferior teams.  The big question for Arsenal, other than why didn't Wenger buy a better keeper this summer;  Was Gael Clichy rested with Chelsea coming on Sunday, or has he been dropped for Kieran Gibbs (pictured, right)?

Ajax looked good, as I thought they would.  They didn't have enough to turn over Real Madrid in Madrid, but AC Milan have no answer for the young legs and silky skills of the Amsterdam lads. Milan were extremely lucky to hold on for a point, it should have been 4-0.  I really think Ajax kept Martin Jol and kept their World Cup stars because they think they are good enough to make a serious run in Europe this season.  Can they win the Champions League?  Probably not.  If they go out in the group stage will they sell their five best players in January?  Probably.  But if I am one of the big clubs, I do not want to see Ajax in the round of sixteen.

Champion's League a Distraction???

This coming Tuesday and Wednesday mark the triumphant return of the group stages of the UEFA Champion's League, always a glorious and wonderful thing.  At least until clubs like AC Milan and Liverpool decide that boring 0-0 draws are the best way to advance.  Wait, you mean they weren't doing that on purpose?  Ohhhhhhhhh.

Anyway, for some clubs, it seems that the World's biggest club competition may have led to subpar performances this weekend.  Barcelona lost to, and to be fair, were soundly beaten by, newly promoted Hercules.  AC Milan also lost to a new member of Serie A.  AS Roma drew on Saturday, and I think we all know (and took immense pleasure from) what happened to Manchester United.

Most of the clubs in European competition, at least this European competition, are pretty much guaranteed to be dwelling in the upper echelons of their domestic league table, so they often put an almost irrational emphasis on the Champion's League.  Given the prestige involved, as well as the financial benefits, it is hard to blame them.

Calm down calm down!!!

Honestly, Bolton was not going to beat Arsenal today.  It was a solid performance for the first 60 minutes or so, and yes, the sending off of Gary Cahill was unjustified, and yes, it changed the whole match.  But really, Arsenal were eventually going to finish one of their 653 chances.

So put the noose away Bolton supporters, Stuart Atwell did not cost us this match.  The boys from north London are just a better team than us.  No surprise really.  I suppose you could say that a free kick on the edge of the box rather than a Cahill red card would have led to us tying things up at two and then charging on to victory, but I think you would be wrong.

Arsenal v Bolton

If anyone is interested in joining me, I will be watching this match live at the Baker Street Pub, at the corner of 63rd St. and 1st Ave., on the scenic island of Manhattan.  And just to warn you, I will be accompanied by an Arsenal supporter.

As for the match, I must admit I am not especially confident of Bolton getting a result.  I think Bolton will defend fairly well, and I think we will create a fair amount of chances on the break.  Arsenal will have somewhere in the neighborhood of 70% possession, and they will look lovely in their movement and control about 40 yards from Adam Bogdan.  It will be a joy to watch.  Of course, the problem arises when the gunners fail to turn that possession into goals.  Two of the players who specialize in turning the pretty passing into points, Robin van Persie and Theo Walcott, are out with injuries.  That may not be enough to get Bolton any points, but it could help make things nervy for Arsenal fans.

Arsenal

Arsene Wenger only named a 20-man-squad for the first half of the season, primarily because so many of his players are under 21 and do not need to be registered. But it doesn't matter how many players he named in the squad, because none of them is a top class goalkeeper. And without a top class goalkeeper, Arsenal are not going to win the Premier League.

This club certainly has the talent on the field to compete for the league title. But Manuel Almunia is a disaster waiting to happen. I don't know why Arsene Wenger doesn't see it. It must be extremely frustrating for the fans. Hell, it frustrates me, and I am not even an Arsenal fan.

Apparently Wenger finally upped the offer for Mark Schwarzer to £4 million, which Fulham found acceptable, but it was too late for them to find a replacement and get that deal done. This deal could have been done three months ago! Why wait until the last minute and take the chance that it won't go through?

I was almost going to pick the Gunners to win the league this season, especially if they managed to bring in someone like Schwarzer, or even better, Shay Given, but I have zero faith in Almunia, so it looks like another third place finish for the boys from North London.

Title Contenders (Arsenal)

Last season Liverpool Keeper Pepe Reina would have made a simple catch of a Theo Wolcott cross deep in injury time, and Anfield would have exploded in celebration of a 1-0 win over Arsenal. This season new signing Marouane Chamakh went in for a challenge on Reina, caused him to spill the ball, and Arsenal salvaged a 1-1 draw.

We all know Arsenal's biggest problems, the things that have kept them from winning the league the last few seasons, when they clearly had enough talent to do so. I think they have addressed, or are trying to address, all of these issues, and if they do, they will be right in the thick of the title fight come May.

The first and most obvious problem is Manuel Almunia. That's a little harsh on him actually. He is not a horrible keeper, and would probably be adequate at a club like West Brom or Wigan, but he is nowhere near good enough for Arsenal. Arsenal have been linked with Mark Schwarzer, who is slightly better but a lot older, and Shay Given, who is a lot better and a similar age to Almunia. If Arsene Wenger weren't so stubborn he would give Man City whatever they want for Given, but the man is ideologically opposed to paying large transfer fees for older players, and that seems to be particularly true for goalkeepers.

The second problem is the lack of depth in the center of defense. Thomas Vermaelen is an outstanding defender, and new signing Laurent Koscielny looks quite good as well, but there is really nothing beyond that. And I mean nothing. Johann Djourou is the only other senior player with any experience at central defender. After him, Wenger will have to drop a midfielder such as Alex Song into the back line. As luck would have it, Koscielny has already picked up a red card and will be suspended this weekend. Now, I don't think that will impact Arsenal's ability to unceremoniously bring Blackpool back to earth, but eventually they are going to need to cope with injuries and/or suspensions for a more difficult match. As soon as he sorts out the goalkeeping situation, Wenger needs to buy another centre-half, probably two.

Many are a bit more perplexed by the third problem. That is that during a given match, the Arsenal players do not seem particularly interested in scoring goals. This sounds absurd, but you can't watch them play and not come away with this feeling. This team absolutely dominates possession. The technical ability, the pace the movement, the accuracy, it is all a sight to behold. And they create chances, loads of chances, but they so often pass them up, and it is infuriating to watch.

The unwillingness to shoot is so ridiculous at times that it is frustrating for people who don't even support Arsenal. They ping the ball around, 15 or 20 yards from goal, creating opening after opening, yet never taking a shot. The second half against ten-man Liverpool was a prime example. Arsenal were down 1-0 to a Champion's League rival, and they barely took any shots. If Manchester United or Chelsea were down 1-0 and a man up in the second half, they would be taking a shot every 15 seconds. You watch these clubs and you see 25 or 30 efforts on goal, every match. With Arsenal it is shocking if they reach double digits in shots on goal.

There are some players in the squad that will shoot, particularly from distance. Most important are Cesc Fabregas and Robin van Persie. Let's face it, we all know how different Arsenal play when those two are fit and on form. And I think this is why Chamakh has been brought in. He is a goal scorer, in talent and in mindset. All the Gunners have to do is take a few shots early in a match from 25 or 30 yards out. Just the threat of it forces defenders to come out and attempt to close them down, which leaves more room for them to get behind and create the tap-ins they seem to prefer.

All things considered, this club is a threat to win every trophy it is competing for this season, but I just can't see the succeeding with an upgrade at goalkeeper and two new central defenders. I doubt Arsene Wenger values my opinion very much, but he has two weeks to convince me Arsenal will win the title this season, and end their well-publicized drought.

Loan Players

Jack Wilshere and Vladimir Weiss both spent the second half of the season with Bolton Wanderers thanks to loan deals from their parent clubs, Arsenal and Manchester City, respectively. Both are very young, and were not going to feature on clubs challenging for the league title and a Champions League spot. That statement will still be true next season, and that is what makes this interesting.

Owen Coyle has already stated that he would like to keep both players for another year.

Jack Wilshere has said he would be open to returning for another season if he cannot get into Arsenal's first team over the summer. Wilshere is very good, but he is at least a year away from starting for a team of Arsenal's caliber. I think the chances of Wilshere playing for Bolton next season are very good.

The situation is murkier where Vladimir Weiss is concerned. He was in the squad every week, and appeared in most matches, though sometimes not until very late. Two weeks ago he stated that he was very disappointed at his lack of opportunities and was looking forward to returning to Manchester City. Then he played a great second half against Stoke City and started the match against Portsmouth. Maybe he has softened his stance on returning after that.

Weiss and Lee Chung-Yong are very similar players. I am not sure if Lee is better, but he is certainly more experienced. I think his presence will probably be enough to prevent Weiss returning to The Reebok next season.

Why I am not a Gambler...

So my prediction of Arsenal winning the Champions League seems not to have worked out. That is no real surprise to be honest, it is hard to go against Barcelona, and almost impossible when Messi is on form in the way he was last night. Next they will come up against Inter Milan, where Jose Mourinho will likely resort to the "anti-football" that everyone hates him for.

Tonight's all French tie is a bit more straightforward, as Bordeaux are unlikely to overturn a 3-1 deficit. They do have an away goal though, so if they go up 1-0 things could get a little dicey for Lyon.

Arsenal v Barcelona update

Injuries are really going to have an effect on the first leg of this tie. Andres Iniesta, Barcelona's extremely influential Spanish midfielder/forward, is out of today's match, and probably a doubt for the return leg next week. This is important because it is Iniesta who links play between the midfield and the strikers. Argentinians often wonder why Lionel Messi looks so much more impressive for Barcelona than he does when playing for his country, and I think the answer is he has Iniesta to get him the ball for his club.

Several other Barcelona players are either questionable or just returning from injury, including Xavi Hernandez and Gerard Pique.

Arsenal always seems to have an injury crisis, and today is no different. Andrey Arshavin and Samir Nasri, who tore Porto apart in Arsenal's last Champions League encounter, are both expected to be available despite slight injuries. Cesc Fabregas is very questionable though. He was injured against Birmingham at the weekend. I like Arsene Wenger, but just as with Robben and Bayern Munich, I have to ask why Fabregas was not rested at the weekend with such a critical match this week.

Arsenal's most important injury doubt may be William Gallas, who was expected to miss the quarterfinal entirely, but has surprised everyone by returning to training this week. He is in the squad tonight, but no one knows if he will feature in the match. Thomas Vermaelen will anchor the back line for Wenger, but without Gallas he doesn't really appear to have a worthy partner.

I predicted that Arsenal would win in London, and I am sticking with that prediction.

Champions League Draw - Arsenal v Barcelona

Here it is, the one everybody has been waiting for (The match, not my blog post). The two best passing teams in the world. The two most attacking sides in Europe. Two sides oozing with talent and quality who seem to bring world class youngsters through their academies just for fun. Just about guarantees it will finish 0-0 and come down to penalty kicks in a shootout.

Seriously, given all of the attacking talent on display, it is safe to say this tie will be decided by defense. The problem for Arsenal here is that a major part of their defense (William Gallas) has a calf injury and is out for the first leg, and probably the whole tie. This leaves Thomas Vermaelen, who has been a rock at the back, along with Sol Campbell, who will struggle to keep up with the likes of Pedro, Xavi, Iniesta, and Messi. Alexandre Song will play the holding midfield role, and he will attempt to shield the back four. THis is especially important because a lot of what Barcelona does in possession starts deep, with Xavi and Iniesta working their way through the midfield to create chances for Messi, Pedro, and Ibrahimovic.

As for the Catalan giants, they have their own defensive frailties. Puyol is well past his prime, and Dani Alves is not exactly known for his defending. A lot will fall on Busquets, who has been patrolling central midfield recently, as the manager does not appear to be seeing eye-to-eye with Yaya Toure. The movement of Arshavin and Nasri, coupled with the passing of Fabregas, will give Barca's back-line a lot to deal with. I would like to think we are in for a couple of rollicking 4-3 games, resulting in a wild 30 minutes of extra time at the Camp Nou, but that is unlikely.

I am going against the grain a little bit here, as I think Arsenal will nick it. They will take a lead to Spain, and score an away goal that allows them to progress. In fact I am going to go ahead and make a bold prediction. Arsenal will not only win this tie, they will get to the final, and lift the trophy in Madrid in May.

UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals

The teams are set. Who plays who will be determined Friday morning.

CSKA Moscow are probably the team everybody wants to play, the least known and the least respected, a midget amongst the giants of European football. I suspect they will give whomever they face a real scare, but will lack enough to go through in the end.

Bordeux are also not expected to pose any real threat, but I think against the right team (Bayern Munich or Manchester United?) they could pull of a shocker. Gourcuff is capable of unlocking any defense, and their defending in Europe has been superb.

Lyon are also not fancied (The French clubs never are), but they seem to have a certain look about them. It would be ironic if the least talented Lyon side of the last decade advances the furthest in the Champions League. Arsenal or Barcelona would tear them apart, but if I were Bayern or Inter Milan I would not want to face them.

Bayern Munich are an attacking force on paper. Schweinsteiger, Olic, Gomez, Mueller, and/or Klose through the middle with Ribery and Robben on either wing should lead to a goal bonanza most weeks. But it doesn't. Frankly, they shouldn't even be here. Fiorentina were the better side over two legs, and the German club only advanced because a blatantly offside goal was allowed in Munich.

Inter Milan have all the talent in the world (as usual) but still play the dreadfully boring Jose Mourinho style of football. They have not played well in quite a while. I can't see them winning the tournament, but they should get to a semi-final unless they draw one of the clubs below.

Manchester United are not very good. I watch them almost every week, and they seem to always be outplayed. But somehow Wayne Rooney pops up with another goal, or a ball ricochets into the net off Paul Scholes' ass or an opponents knee. As I said, they are not that good, but they may be the luckiest side I have ever seen. I think they are through if they draw anyone besides Barcelona. The French teams could cause them trouble, but the French striker will get sent off and Fletcher will mis-hit a ball off 6 defenders and into goal to put them through.

Arsenal are my pick to win the competition. I just think they are the most talented team overall. Their downfall could be that Almunia is a bit shaky in goal, but when it comes to attacking talent, they are second to none, and I think their defense is a lot more reliable than Bayern Munich's or even Barcelona's.

Barcelona are the consensus favorite to retain their title, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they did so, but this year's squad seems to be lacking something. It reminds me a bit of Chelsea the last two seasons. The talent is there, strength and depth at every position, a good manager, but I just don't trust them.

We will have a better idea of each club's chances very soon, when the draw is completed.

Super Sunday every week

I've got my hot cuppa, I've got my beans on toast, and I am ready to watch Chelsea play Arsenal in what the English media is billing as a title decider. The fact that after today each club will have 14 more league matches to play doesn't fit into the narrative, so is being dutifully ignored.

I believe this is a symptom of a larger change in the Premier League, which many have yet to notice or appreciate. This change is that the talent gap has closed, not between the top and the bottom, where it is still a gulf, but between the top and the middle. Gone are the days when Arsenal can complete a season without losing a match, or Chelsea can lose only 1 match on their way to 92 points.

The big teams are dropping points this season, and I believe their are 2 reasons for this.

First, as I mentioned above, clubs such as Manchester City, Aston Villa, Tottenham, and even Everton have improved. Maybe not to the point where they are going to challenge for the title, not this year anyway, but to the point where they can take points off the likes of Manchester United and Chelsea far more frequently than they could 3 or 4 years ago.

Far more interesting is the second reason for this trend. This centers around the bottom of the table club's reaction to the strengthening of many formerly mid-table teams. In past years, a relegation threatened club expected little to no points from 8 matches against the so-called Big Four. The manager would put 10 men behind the ball in the away match and hope not to get embarrassed. And the home match wasn't very different, with the best case scenario often being a single point. This left another 30 matches from which to achieve the 40 or so points needed to stay up.

With the improvement of the other clubs I mentioned, managers of clubs such as Hull, Wigan, Bolton, Sunderland, etc., had a decision to make. They had to decide if they were able to sacrifice even more games, put even more importance on the matches against fellow strugglers. Some, such as McCarthy, Megson, Hart, chose this route. But many others went in the other direction. They decided to abandon the tactic of sacrificing matches, to actually try and win every game their club played. And it has completely changed the look of the league.

A lot more goals are being scored, a lot more end-to-end football is being played, and a lot more points are being dropped by the members of the big four. In fact, I would wager that Manchester United has seen more clubs play two strikers against them so far this season than in the previous 2 seasons combined. Now this tactic doesn't always work, we have seen some struggling clubs try to attack the big sides and get embarrassed 4-1, 5-0, 6-2, even 9-1 on 1 occasion.

Personally, I like this change. This newfound ambition can only be good for a league that had become all too predictable the last few years.