Champions League Thoughts

Partizan Belgrade and Arsenal played a very strange match.  Three penalties, two missed, as well as some strange goals, and other questionable challenges, all added to Arsenal's usual reluctance to punish inferior teams.  The big question for Arsenal, other than why didn't Wenger buy a better keeper this summer;  Was Gael Clichy rested with Chelsea coming on Sunday, or has he been dropped for Kieran Gibbs (pictured, right)?

Ajax looked good, as I thought they would.  They didn't have enough to turn over Real Madrid in Madrid, but AC Milan have no answer for the young legs and silky skills of the Amsterdam lads. Milan were extremely lucky to hold on for a point, it should have been 4-0.  I really think Ajax kept Martin Jol and kept their World Cup stars because they think they are good enough to make a serious run in Europe this season.  Can they win the Champions League?  Probably not.  If they go out in the group stage will they sell their five best players in January?  Probably.  But if I am one of the big clubs, I do not want to see Ajax in the round of sixteen.

Champions League Upsets

I could also call this entry "How the Mighty have Fallen."

AC Milan and Read Madrid are both at home against clubs one would normally expect them to beat.  But not this season.  AC Milan have been in decline for quite some time.  Italian football observers, myself included had been saying Milan were too old for a couple season's when they won the Champions League in 2007.  That triumph was a combination of smoke, mirrors, luck, guile, and the brilliance of Kaka.

Several of the players from that squad are still around, but they are well past their sell-by date.  The Italians have tried to prop themselves up by bringing in some younger players (young being relative), but none of them have really worked out, and financial considerations forced them to sell Kaka.  In a desperate attempt to appease their supporters (especially the ultras, who will throw their flaming Vespa at you if displeased), Milan have brought in some big name attackers, although none of them live up to their reputations very often.

Milan barely qualified for this competition last season in Serie A, and I think they are in danger of missing out once again this time around.  Their priority early in the season will be to advance past the group stages of the Champions League, and that will not be an easy feat in this group.

Why I am not a Gambler...

So my prediction of Arsenal winning the Champions League seems not to have worked out. That is no real surprise to be honest, it is hard to go against Barcelona, and almost impossible when Messi is on form in the way he was last night. Next they will come up against Inter Milan, where Jose Mourinho will likely resort to the "anti-football" that everyone hates him for.

Tonight's all French tie is a bit more straightforward, as Bordeaux are unlikely to overturn a 3-1 deficit. They do have an away goal though, so if they go up 1-0 things could get a little dicey for Lyon.

Champions League Draw - Inter Milan v CSKA Moscow

As I stated in an earlier post, CSKA are no pushovers, and Inter Milan will certainly be challenged in this tie, but it will be absolutely shocking if the Italian side does not go through.

The first leg of the tie is at the San Siro, which I think is an advantage for Inter. Maybe CSKA will be confident after their impressive away win to knock out Sevilla, but Inter are an entirely different kettle of fish. Inter's only concern in the first leg will be preventing an away goal for the Russians. And they have just the manager to do it.

Jose Mourinho is a master at frustrating and eventually beating teams that rely on the counter attack. This describes CSKA, who like to get forward with pace, especially after the other side has committed too many bodies to attack. But Inter won't do that. As Mourinho has shown in the past, when he plays a team that likes to counter attack, his side just doesn't attack. With no attack, there can be no counter attack.

As a spectacle, this match will be dire, 180 minutes (possibly 210 minutes) of sheer tactical boredom. The players themselves will be all but irrelevant and the talk will be only of zonal marking and formations. Rafa Benitez should enjoy it immensely, but even the most ardent of fans risks falling asleep should he or she attempt to sit through both legs.

So, it may be dramatic, it won't be entertaining, but Inter will be through to face the winner of Arsenal v Barcelona, a mouth watering tie that I will break down in (much) more detail at a later date.