UEFA Champions League

Let's review.  Manchester City needed to beat Bayern Munich to have any chance of advancing out of Group A.  They did, but it didn't matter.  Napoli won, so they will join Bayern in the knockout stages.  Both will be threats in the next round, although the Germans are probably joint favorites to win the tournament.  City will be disappointed, but it may be better for the club in the long run.  They can now focus on domestic matters, and I believe they will win the league.  They also have a very good chance to win the Europa League.  It is not the European trophy they wanted, but it could give them substantial momentum going into next season's Champion's League.

CSKA Moscow ended up joining Internazionale in the next round.  Neither looks likely to go very far.  Inter are old and slow, CSKA are short on talent.  All evidence of Group B will be disposed off very shortly.

I thought Group C would make a splash, and it did.  Manchester United join their neighbors in the Europa League, Benfica and FC Basel go through.  Neither have a chance of winning the trophy, but both are frisky enough that other clubs will want to avoid them.  Rosters that are old and slow will have particular problems with these two.  The aforementioned Inter Milan will desperately want to avoid FC Basel.

Ajax lost and Lyon won by a combined 9 goals.  Group D was left in chaos.  Real Madrid are co-favorites to lift the trophy in May, Lyon looked dead a few days ago.   But now the French club have a few months to regroup and maybe even add some talent to the squad.  I predict Arsenal will draw Lyon in the next round.

Chelsea and Bayer Leverkusen go through in Group E.  There were some twists and turns, but this was what most expected way back in August.

Same with Arsenal and Marseille.  A few surprises in Group F, but ultimately what we all knew was inevitable.

Group G give us Apoel Nicosia and Zenit St. Petersburg.  Both are both nice stories, but the fairy take should end after the round of 16.

Group H was the most predictable of all.  Barcelona are favorites to defend their title, and AC Milan have finally gotten younger after many years of futility with an aging squad.  The Italians are probably not a threat to Barcelona and Real Madrid, but they may be in a year or two.

Tomorrow's draw will give us a good idea of who might be a surprise entrant to the last eight, and who might have their European adventure ended prematurely.

UEFA Champions League Groups

There is only 1 match left in the group stages, and though several question marks remain, most of the big boys have assured themselves of advancement to the round of 16.  Bayern Munich, Inter Milan, Real Madrid, Arsenal, and Barcelona are through as group winners.  That's 5 spots.  AC Milan have also qualified.  No surprises there.

Group A looked difficult from the outset, and despite Villareal's performance, has lived up to its billing.  Napoli play Villareal in Spain, and while it is no sure thing, the Italians seem likely to get at least a point there.  That means, in order to advance in their first Champions League appearance, Manchester City have to defeat high-flying Bayern Munich.  The game is in Manchester, and already-qualified Bayern may rest some players, but the Blues are still behind the 8 ball at this point.  It may be Europa League for them.

Basel's 3-3 Win against Manchester United!

First thing, this was an incredibly open match, something you don't often see in the Champion's League.  Both clubs were bombing forward, creating loads of chances, trying to score at every opportunity, and generally leaving themselves wide open to counter attacks.  It could have very easily been 5-5 at halftime, United's 2-0 lead at that point flattered to deceive.  Each side came way with a point, but I suspect the Swiss club's changing room was a far cheerier place.  They got a point at Old Trafford.  Alex Ferguson can't be happy with 2 points from two matches in Europe. 

However, Ferguson only has himself to blame.  Possibly the biggest reason United has run rampant in the Premier League this season is the Scot's willingness to let his high octane youngsters run free.  He has put the reins on in Europe though.  Maybe wisdom is the better part of valor, but Ryan Giggs, Rio Ferdinand, Michael Carrick, and Park Ji-Sung didn't look experienced and composed, they looked slow and unimaginative.    

This is not a new problem.  Ferguson has always been conservative in European matches, often too conservative.  You can make an argument (and many people have) that given the talent and resources at his disposal, and the teams he has assembled, Sir Alex should have more than two Champion's League trophies.  Since he took over in 1986, AC Milan have won it 5 times, Barcelona have won it 4 times, and Real Madrid have won it 3 times.  Hell, Porto have won it as many times as Manchester United.

Suffice it to say, it will be very interesting over the next few months to see if the hot shot youngsters that are tearing apart the EPL will be allowed to strut their stuff in the midweek matches.  I don't think they will, and this timidness will prevent Ferguson's lifting of a third European Cup.  

UEFA Champions League-Bayern Munich v Manchester City

Champions League returns today, and the marquee match-up features the pedigree of Bayern and the pocketbook of Man City.  There are big names all over the pitch, inlcuding on the bench, as Arjen Robben and Carlos Tevez will not feature from the start. 

For me the most important player on the German side is Bastian Schweinsteiger.  He has to control the match from central midfield if Bayern are to get a result.   The movement of Man City's front 4 (David Silva, Samir Nasri, Edin Dzeko, Sergio Aguerro) is sublime, and Munich's suspect backline will be eviscerated if their midfield maestro cannot effectively shield them.  That's only half the job though.  Everything Bayern do going forward is also dependent upon Schweinsteiger.  Franck Ribery, Thomas Muller, Mario Gomez and Toni Kroos provide great movement and skill in their own right, but they can't create without number 31 pulling the strings.  I thought he was the player of the tournament at the 2010 World Cup, ahead of even Xavi and Iniesta, and he will need to put in that type of performance tonight. 

Gareth Barry and Yaya Toure will be charged with stopping the Bayern leader.  I just chuckled a bit.  We may see Nigel de Jong relatively early on in this one.  I just don't think Schweinsteiger can do it though.  Man City just have too many threats.  2-1 to the blues, an impressive away win.

Barcelona Wins the Champions League

And they deserved it.  It was a great match for the first 50 minutes or so, but at that point the Catalans possession advantage started to pay off.

What's next for Barcelona?  They are a fairly young team overall.  Valdes is 29, Busquets is 22, and Pique is 24.  Dani Alves is 28, but still has a few seasons left as one of the top right backs in the world.  Javier Mascherano seems to have been around forever, but he is still only 26.  Carlos Puyol is 33, and Eric Abidal is 31, both are at the tail ends of their careers, but neither is all that important to Barcelona at this point.  The defense looks to be in great shape going forward.

Barcelona play a 4-3-3, and they use three legitimate forwards up top.  Those forwards are chosen from David Villa (29), Lionel Messi (23), Pedro (23), Ibrahim Affelay (25), and Maxwell (29).  This is probably the best attack in the world, and will remain so for several years.

This brings us to the midfield, the one place where Barcelona may have some issues.  Everything they do is  orchestrated by Xavi and Iniesta.  Iniesta is only 27, but Xavi is 31, and both, between La Liga matches, Champions League, Copa del Rey, and international matches for Spain, play a lot of football.

Iniesta is already a little injury-prone, and that will only get worse as he ages.  Xavi, as good as he has been , is not likely to stay at this level for more than 2 seasons.  Euro 2012 could be his sort of last hurrah.

So hold out hope world, Barcelona may only be the best team on the planet for two more seasons.

Mental Mistakes

When it comes to sports, no player is ever perfect.  No matter how good an athlete you are, there are balls you can't reach, attackers you can't catch, shots you can't reach, etc.  It's physics, it's reality, and much as we wish it wouldn't, it sometimes intrudes on our little world.  However, these are physical mistakes.  Everybody is going to make physical mistakes, and these are easily forgiven.

Mental mistakes on the other hand, are an entirely different animal.  Most mental mistakes are avoidable, and usually pretty easily so.  Flying into a challenge with both feet off the ground 80 yards from goal in the first ten minutes of a Champions League match is certainly avoidable.  Doing so twice, in the first leg of the biggest match in your club's history, is downright stupid.  As Peter Crouch trudged off the pitch today, the fans at the Bernabeu Stadium chanted, "Tonto, Tonto!"  This means, "Stupid, stupid!"  I see no reason to argue with them.

Champions League Star Peter Crouch?

The goal was really made by Aaron Lennon, and his run was so good that even he couldn't screw up the cross.  AC Milan really did not look a threat.  Zlatan Ibrahimovic created a few chances late, but for most of the match you would have thought Tottenham were the home team.

In my humble opinion, AC Milan are a spent force, and their current position perched atop Serie A only speaks further to the steep decline in the quality of that league.  It's hard to see anything but a fairly easy home win for Spurs in the second leg of this tie.

As for Tuesday's other match, Schalke have an away goal and Valencia are not known for traveling well, especially to Germany.  It's hard to see anything other than the German side advancing to the last 8.

Champions League Thoughts

Partizan Belgrade and Arsenal played a very strange match.  Three penalties, two missed, as well as some strange goals, and other questionable challenges, all added to Arsenal's usual reluctance to punish inferior teams.  The big question for Arsenal, other than why didn't Wenger buy a better keeper this summer;  Was Gael Clichy rested with Chelsea coming on Sunday, or has he been dropped for Kieran Gibbs (pictured, right)?

Ajax looked good, as I thought they would.  They didn't have enough to turn over Real Madrid in Madrid, but AC Milan have no answer for the young legs and silky skills of the Amsterdam lads. Milan were extremely lucky to hold on for a point, it should have been 4-0.  I really think Ajax kept Martin Jol and kept their World Cup stars because they think they are good enough to make a serious run in Europe this season.  Can they win the Champions League?  Probably not.  If they go out in the group stage will they sell their five best players in January?  Probably.  But if I am one of the big clubs, I do not want to see Ajax in the round of sixteen.

Champions League Upsets

I could also call this entry "How the Mighty have Fallen."

AC Milan and Read Madrid are both at home against clubs one would normally expect them to beat.  But not this season.  AC Milan have been in decline for quite some time.  Italian football observers, myself included had been saying Milan were too old for a couple season's when they won the Champions League in 2007.  That triumph was a combination of smoke, mirrors, luck, guile, and the brilliance of Kaka.

Several of the players from that squad are still around, but they are well past their sell-by date.  The Italians have tried to prop themselves up by bringing in some younger players (young being relative), but none of them have really worked out, and financial considerations forced them to sell Kaka.  In a desperate attempt to appease their supporters (especially the ultras, who will throw their flaming Vespa at you if displeased), Milan have brought in some big name attackers, although none of them live up to their reputations very often.

Milan barely qualified for this competition last season in Serie A, and I think they are in danger of missing out once again this time around.  Their priority early in the season will be to advance past the group stages of the Champions League, and that will not be an easy feat in this group.

Champion's League a Distraction???

This coming Tuesday and Wednesday mark the triumphant return of the group stages of the UEFA Champion's League, always a glorious and wonderful thing.  At least until clubs like AC Milan and Liverpool decide that boring 0-0 draws are the best way to advance.  Wait, you mean they weren't doing that on purpose?  Ohhhhhhhhh.

Anyway, for some clubs, it seems that the World's biggest club competition may have led to subpar performances this weekend.  Barcelona lost to, and to be fair, were soundly beaten by, newly promoted Hercules.  AC Milan also lost to a new member of Serie A.  AS Roma drew on Saturday, and I think we all know (and took immense pleasure from) what happened to Manchester United.

Most of the clubs in European competition, at least this European competition, are pretty much guaranteed to be dwelling in the upper echelons of their domestic league table, so they often put an almost irrational emphasis on the Champion's League.  Given the prestige involved, as well as the financial benefits, it is hard to blame them.

Why I am not a Gambler...

So my prediction of Arsenal winning the Champions League seems not to have worked out. That is no real surprise to be honest, it is hard to go against Barcelona, and almost impossible when Messi is on form in the way he was last night. Next they will come up against Inter Milan, where Jose Mourinho will likely resort to the "anti-football" that everyone hates him for.

Tonight's all French tie is a bit more straightforward, as Bordeaux are unlikely to overturn a 3-1 deficit. They do have an away goal though, so if they go up 1-0 things could get a little dicey for Lyon.

Arsenal v Barcelona update

Injuries are really going to have an effect on the first leg of this tie. Andres Iniesta, Barcelona's extremely influential Spanish midfielder/forward, is out of today's match, and probably a doubt for the return leg next week. This is important because it is Iniesta who links play between the midfield and the strikers. Argentinians often wonder why Lionel Messi looks so much more impressive for Barcelona than he does when playing for his country, and I think the answer is he has Iniesta to get him the ball for his club.

Several other Barcelona players are either questionable or just returning from injury, including Xavi Hernandez and Gerard Pique.

Arsenal always seems to have an injury crisis, and today is no different. Andrey Arshavin and Samir Nasri, who tore Porto apart in Arsenal's last Champions League encounter, are both expected to be available despite slight injuries. Cesc Fabregas is very questionable though. He was injured against Birmingham at the weekend. I like Arsene Wenger, but just as with Robben and Bayern Munich, I have to ask why Fabregas was not rested at the weekend with such a critical match this week.

Arsenal's most important injury doubt may be William Gallas, who was expected to miss the quarterfinal entirely, but has surprised everyone by returning to training this week. He is in the squad tonight, but no one knows if he will feature in the match. Thomas Vermaelen will anchor the back line for Wenger, but without Gallas he doesn't really appear to have a worthy partner.

I predicted that Arsenal would win in London, and I am sticking with that prediction.

If's and buts...

I can't help but think how different today's match between Bayern Munich and Manchester United would have been if Arjen Robben had played. Some might think that irrelevant since Bayern won by 2 goals to 1, and probably could not have asked for a better result, but hear me out.

Because Robben was unable to play, Hamit Altintop started on the right wing for the Germans. Save for one tricky run, which ended in a relatively tame shot straight at Edwin van der Sar, Altintop was terrible. He often gave the ball away, when he did get into a good position his crossing was poor, and he didn't really provide any help defensively.

Now, in some cases, nothing can be done about this sort of thing. Players get injured, it's part of the game. But in this case, I think the Bayern Munich brain-trust is to blame. I won't single out Louis van Gaal because Bayern Munich, much like Real Madrid, don't really give their manager a whole lot of autonomy. All of the "directors" sitting in the stands have a great deal of say over what happens on the pitch. Given that, the questions I would have to ask them is, "Why the hell was Robben playing against Stutgart over the weekend?! With a Champions League quarterfinal 3 days later?!" It just makes no sense.

Manchester United were thoroughly outplayed though, in all honesty they were lucky to only lose 2-1. But Rooney got the away goal, as I predicted he would, and Bayern couldn't get another goal to put the tie away. In fact, they barely got the win, scoring late in injury time when Patrice Evra was careless with the ball in his own box.

I have to believe that Robben, with his finishing ability and the form he is in, could have gotten another goal for the Bavarians, even if he had only come off the bench. And that makes me think, despite their victory, Bayern Munich missed an opportunity to really put themselves in the driver's seat. Manchester United will make them pay, and I suspect the English club will win quite handily at Old Trafford next week. Although I do have to add one caveat. Wayne Rooney limped off the field at the end of the match with what looked like an ankle injury. Alex Ferguson played it down as not serious, but if it does turn out to be serious, that makes things far more difficult for United, and gives Bayern a much better chance of advancing.

Bayern Munich v Manchester United - Update

Arjen Robben looks unlikely to play in the first leg of this tie at The Allianz Arena in Munich. This is a huge blow for the Germans, as Robben has been their best player, and one of the best players in Europe, this season. If Robben doesn't play against Manchester United, Bayern has about a 1% chance of advancing.

As for the English club, Wayne Rooney and Rio Ferdinand both sat out the win against Bolton Wanderers, but are expected to start today. As I mentioned earlier, I don't think the Bayern defenders will capitulate in the way AC Milan did a few weeks ago, but that doesn't mean they will be able to stop Rooney either. His form is so good that it will almost be a surprise if he doesn't score an away goal.

When it was first announced, this one looked like an intriguing match-up, but given the injury concerns and Munich's loss of form, it could be an easy one for Manchester United.

UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals

The teams are set. Who plays who will be determined Friday morning.

CSKA Moscow are probably the team everybody wants to play, the least known and the least respected, a midget amongst the giants of European football. I suspect they will give whomever they face a real scare, but will lack enough to go through in the end.

Bordeux are also not expected to pose any real threat, but I think against the right team (Bayern Munich or Manchester United?) they could pull of a shocker. Gourcuff is capable of unlocking any defense, and their defending in Europe has been superb.

Lyon are also not fancied (The French clubs never are), but they seem to have a certain look about them. It would be ironic if the least talented Lyon side of the last decade advances the furthest in the Champions League. Arsenal or Barcelona would tear them apart, but if I were Bayern or Inter Milan I would not want to face them.

Bayern Munich are an attacking force on paper. Schweinsteiger, Olic, Gomez, Mueller, and/or Klose through the middle with Ribery and Robben on either wing should lead to a goal bonanza most weeks. But it doesn't. Frankly, they shouldn't even be here. Fiorentina were the better side over two legs, and the German club only advanced because a blatantly offside goal was allowed in Munich.

Inter Milan have all the talent in the world (as usual) but still play the dreadfully boring Jose Mourinho style of football. They have not played well in quite a while. I can't see them winning the tournament, but they should get to a semi-final unless they draw one of the clubs below.

Manchester United are not very good. I watch them almost every week, and they seem to always be outplayed. But somehow Wayne Rooney pops up with another goal, or a ball ricochets into the net off Paul Scholes' ass or an opponents knee. As I said, they are not that good, but they may be the luckiest side I have ever seen. I think they are through if they draw anyone besides Barcelona. The French teams could cause them trouble, but the French striker will get sent off and Fletcher will mis-hit a ball off 6 defenders and into goal to put them through.

Arsenal are my pick to win the competition. I just think they are the most talented team overall. Their downfall could be that Almunia is a bit shaky in goal, but when it comes to attacking talent, they are second to none, and I think their defense is a lot more reliable than Bayern Munich's or even Barcelona's.

Barcelona are the consensus favorite to retain their title, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they did so, but this year's squad seems to be lacking something. It reminds me a bit of Chelsea the last two seasons. The talent is there, strength and depth at every position, a good manager, but I just don't trust them.

We will have a better idea of each club's chances very soon, when the draw is completed.

Wesley Sneijder

This 25 year old midfielder for Inter Milan and Holland is an incredible talent. He is also one of the most exasperating players in world football. When he is motivated he is clearly a top class playmaker, able to create numerous scoring opportunities for his teammates and really control an entire match from his advanced central-midfield position. But when he is not in the mood, for whatever reason, he completely disappears from the game. I have seen matches where you wouldn't even know he was on the pitch. And when you play an attacking role in the middle of the park, this is no easy task because everything goes through you.

As Inter progresses through the Champions League it will be interesting to see how he performs. If he is at the top of his game, Inter might be able to win the competition, yet if he is not giving them top class performances, I can't see them getting much further.

When things get really interesting will be after the World Cup begins. Nigel de Jong is an outstanding defensive midfielder, and he will give Sneijder the freedom to go forward with little to no defensive responsibilities. If Sneijder plays well, setting up Arjen Robben, Robin van Persie, and the other Dutch attackers, the Netherlands could make a serious run in June. I will be watching him with great interest in the next few months.

Manchester United

Alex Ferguson put out a very defensive team, with little creativity on display beyond Wayne Rooney. Nani has had a few nice matches, but to depend on him for midfield creativity in the Champions League against AC Milan seems a bit much. And it was, as Nani was largely ineffective and Antonio Valencia came on for him in the 63rd minute.

All in all, I think Ferguson was playing for a draw. And I don't blame him. Because the fact is this team is just not very good. They win a lot of matches through a combination of own goals, dodgy refereeing, Rooney's brilliance, fluke goals, guile, and reputation, but they are just not very good. Both of Rooney's headers were down to shambolic defending by Milan. None of their defenders had any desire to try and win the balls in the air. United has been living off this sort of thing all season. But I have to think that eventually they will come up against a good team that is not afraid to challenge them. I'll be shocked if Manchester United manage to win a single trophy this season.

Real Madrid

When I saw Sergio Ramos at centre-back I suspected Madrid would have some problems, and they did. In fact, they made a defensive substitution and moved Ramos to right back at halftime. Madrid's players looked as though they believe they are entitled to advancement into the next round. An interesting attitude considering it has been six years since they have advanced beyond the round of 16. Lyon's players showed no fear and made it clear early on that Los Galacticos would have to work if they wanted anything out of this match.

Champions of Europe

Congratulations to Manchester United.  It was a good performance, and overall a good game.  I still get irritated by the tactics though.  Surely Ferguson and Grant know more about football than I do, after all they are professional managers and I am sitting in a pub in Honolulu, but do they really have to be that defensive.  

Chelsea and Manchester United must have 500 millon pounds worth of players in their respective squads, including such attacking luminaries as Drogba, Ronaldo, Rooney, Joe Cole, Tevez, Anelka, Nani, Kalou, and several more.  Sometimes I just found myself yelling at the screen, "For christ's sake, go and try to win the match!"

As a Bolton supporter, I can only dream about having such attacking options, so it just drives me nuts to see teams with the resources to build such a squad not use it.  

Until this summer that is, when Megson will spend 30 million pounds and buy a strike force that will lead us to glory.