Bolton Wanderers v Relegation (and Aston Villa)

If you look at the past several seasons in the top flight, there is always a club that is "too good to go down."  Newcastle held that title at one point, and West Ham has held it three or four times.  Leeds and Southampton in 2004 and 2005 were too good to go down.  Millwall and Birmingham played in Europe the seasons after they went down.  It kills me to say it, but this season's Bolton team has that feeling.

Big names are underperforming; Gary Cahill, Jussi Jaaskelainen, Kevin Davies, Martin Petrov, Tuncay, Paul Robinson

Injuries have exposed a lack of depth and creativity; Stuart Holden, Lee Chung-yong, Tyrone Mears, Sam Ricketts, Marcos Alonso, Ricardo Gardner

Bad luck seems to play a part in a lot of results; Red cards, shots off the post, flukey deflected goals for the opposition.

Whenever I Think I Know What I am Doing...

...I look back at my preseason predictions.  Just a few gems;

On Wigan, currently bottom of the table, I wrote;


A couple injuries and some bad breaks could pull the Latics down into the relegation battle, but more likely they will have one or two good runs of form that will be just enough to safely ensconce them in the 13-16 range of the table. 


On Wolves, currently 19th;

Bolton Wanderers 3 Aston Villa 2

What a match!  Another outstanding end-to-end affair at the Reebok.  Bolton didn't play as well as they are capable, in fact, Aston Villa will feel rather hard done by after this one, but you have to take advantage when you are on top.  That means finishing the chances you create.

In Ivan Klasnic and Daniel Sturridge the Wanderers have two top class finishers.  And Gary Cahill is not too shabby either.  Remember, in roughly 25 matches last season, before his shoulder problem, he scored seven goals.

Overall, there were some defensive blunders, and the finishing by Villa was not great, but both sides played very well in attack.  More importantly, this win puts Bolton on 40 points for the season, with nine matches to go.  I think mid-table was always the goal, and we should be able to push on after this, well clear of the relegation battle.  It is probably a little early for a return to European competition, and I think we will fall short of that, but an eighth place finish in Coyle's first full season, with a good portion of the squad (Wheater, Lee, Holden, Muamba, Davies, Alonso, Cahill) under 25, bodes very well for the future.

Wanderers Draw

Bolton fans have a long history of blaming Mike Dean for everything from Kevin Davies' lack of goals to global warming and fluoride in their drinking water.

In the first half of today's match, they may have had a point.  Both Lee Chong-yung and Johann Elmander were brought down in the box. Neither is a player known for going down easily.   The first penalty claim, involving Lee and Stephen Warnock, was debatable.  It looked quite obvious that Warnock brought the Korean winger down, but Lee's touch had been heavy.  You could argue that he had lost possession and was not going to get to the ball either way.  I am not saying I agree with this argument, but it can reasonably be made.

Aston Villa v Bolton Wanderers

Apparently, some day soon, Aston Villa will have a new manager.  He is a good manager, and the club's performances will probably improve under him.  If the past is any indication, all that will do is create unrealistic expectations for the managers that come after him.  Bolton have also been down this road.  Only now, under Owen Coyle, is the club finally starting to emerge from the shadow of Sam Allardyce.

This weekend's match could give us a preview of this new era, as club captain and aerial warrior Kevin Davies looks very unlikely to feature.  Now, you never want a player to get injured, but Wanderers are not going to be able to have a full break from the Allardyce team until Davies rides off into the sunset.  The truth is, it is hard to argue that he still deserves an automatic place in the starting XI.  Unfortunately, he is only one of several Bolton absentees this week.  The Bolton team will look something like this;

Calm down calm down!!!

Honestly, Bolton was not going to beat Arsenal today.  It was a solid performance for the first 60 minutes or so, and yes, the sending off of Gary Cahill was unjustified, and yes, it changed the whole match.  But really, Arsenal were eventually going to finish one of their 653 chances.

So put the noose away Bolton supporters, Stuart Atwell did not cost us this match.  The boys from north London are just a better team than us.  No surprise really.  I suppose you could say that a free kick on the edge of the box rather than a Cahill red card would have led to us tying things up at two and then charging on to victory, but I think you would be wrong.

Newcastle United

I said this about some clubs last week, and I say it about the Geordies this week; Don't get carried away. They were absolutely destroyed at Old Trafford in week 1, and they have that shiny 6-0 scoreline to show off after week 2. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. Newcastle are not as bad as they looked against Manchester United, nor are they as good as the score would indicate against Aston Villa.

In fact, the score against Villa is very deceiving. Villa missed a penalty and had a seemingly good goal disallowed. Newcastle then padded the goal tally with a couple of late scores. And it must be said some of their goals were of the dubious variety.

Long story short, Newcastle supporters, be happy with the result, but don't fool yourselves, the club is still going to be involved in the relegation scrap.

Europa League Hopefuls (Aston Villa)

A few weeks ago, Villa might have been a Champion's League hopeful, at least for some people. I thought they were a candidate to take a step backwards, and I think Martin O'Neill agreed with me. When it became clear he wouldn't be able to make any big signings, and that a few players may leave, he jumped off a sinking ship. To be fair though, Villa have spent quite a bit of money under Randy Lerner's ownership, and there was nothing honorable about the timing or manner of O'Neill's departure.

This situation really leaves me unable to make a prediction as to what will happen at Villa Park this season. There have been reports that man y of the players were quite happy to see the manager leave, and their predicted plunge down the table without him may give the squad a sense of togetherness, as well as a chip on their shoulder. They came out on fire for their first match sans O'Neill, and absolutely dominated the first half against West Ham yesterday.

Depth has been a problem the last couple seasons, as Villa has faded late, but some cynics say the manager's unwillingness to use his bench was more to blame than the quality of that bench. I will withhold final judgement until a new boss is appointed, but it is safe to say Villa have a wide range of possible results this campaign. If they get in the right manager, and keep hold of their best players, another top 4 challenge and top 6 finish could be on the cards. On the other hand, if they get in the wrong manager, they could fall out of the top 10 altogether.

Bolton Wanderers v Aston Villa

This was a tough loss to take at home for Bolton. Neither side played especially well, but I actually thought Bolton edged it on overall play. The difference was simply a moment of brilliance from Ashley Young. And the Wanderers just don't have a player who can finish like that.

There are several players on Bolton, such as Lee Chung-Yong and Jack Wilshere, who are very good on the ball. Ivan Klasnic is a great finisher, but he is a poacher. What Bolton don't have is a player who is going to create his own shot out of nothing and put it in the back of the net. I think that type of player should be the number 1 target for Owen Coyle in the summer.

Bolton Wanderers v Aston Villa

This match-up has featured some great moments in the past, but this week Aston Villa and Bolton are both coming off of hammerings by title contenders. But there was a very different level of quality to the performance in these defeats. Bolton played Manchester United pretty tight last weekend, with a ridiculous own goal the only thing preventing the game being level at halftime. Villa, on the other hand, were absolutely shellacked by Chelsea. There are varying opinions on what effect those results will have on tomorrow's match.

Martin O'Neill has been saying for weeks that his players are tired, and they looked it against Chelsea. Fact is, the manager has only himself to blame. The squad he has built at Villa actually has a reasonable amount of depth, but O'Neill refuses to rotate his players, and this has cost him not only this season, but the past few seasons, as Villa have made great starts but faded late. His most significant injury worries are Gabriel Agbonlahor, James Milner, Richard Dunne, Emile Heskey, and John Carew. I think most of them will end up featuring, either on the bench or from the start. To me, Milner has been outstanding this season, and it will be a big blow if he can't play all 90 minutes.

Owen Coyle has been much more willing to rotate his squad, as he has named 18 different players in the starting XI since his arrival in late January. At this point though, with 6 games left in the season, we have a pretty good idea who he will start with. The goalkeeper is obvious, and has been for 12 seasons now. Zat Knight and Gary Cahill will start in the centre of defense, hopefully for year to come. Fabrice Mumba will sit in front of them, again, hopefully for years to come. Jack Wilshere and Lee Chung-Yong will play on either wing, and Kevin Davies will spearhead the attack along with Johan Elmander.

That leaves 3 positions of interest. It has been hard to get a read of Coyle's opinion regarding the fullbacks, because injuries and suspensions over the past 2 months have meant that Sam Ricketts, Gretar Steinsson, and Paul Robinson have all played together more often than not. Now that the back-line is healthy again, we will see who Coyle trusts for the run-in.

The other opening, an done that has caused a great deal of debate amongst Bolton supporters, is the second, more attacking, central midfield role.

Tamir Cohen has been the default choice, starting 25 matches this season. I think Cohen is a good player. He will not be nutmegging defenders and chipping the keeper after a mazy run, but he is a decent passer, a good defender, and has popped up with the occasional goal, although not recently.

A lot of supporters prefer Mark Davies, and he is quite a promising youngster. He played an absolute blinder against Arsenal in January, but Williams Gallas butchered his leg late in that match, and although Davies has featured a few times since then, the ankle has obviously bothered him and he prevented his reaching the same heights.

Ricardo Gardner has been very good in several central midfield appearances, but at this point in his career he is always injured. He has recently returned to training after a thigh problem, but I doubt he will feature in this one.

There are a couple other options, such as dropping Elmander into this role and starting Ivan Klasnic up front, or playing Riga Mustapha as the attacker in a midfield diamond, but those are unlikely. Some would like to see Wilshere moved into the middle and Vladimir Weiss given a chance from the start, but Coyle doesn't seem interested in giving Weiss that opportunity.

A draw would bring Bolton 6 points clear of the drop zone, while a win would push their cushion to 8 points with 5 matches to play. As for the clubs around them, Wolves are at Arsenal, where they will get nothing, and Wigan are at Fulham, where they can expect a point at best. West Ham are at Goodison Park, where they will lose, and Hull City are at Stoke, where a draw would be a good result for them, but is unlikely. Burnley host Manchester City, but I think they are just about relegated, and Portsmouth are already down.