Whenever I Think I Know What I am Doing...

...I look back at my preseason predictions.  Just a few gems;

On Wigan, currently bottom of the table, I wrote;


A couple injuries and some bad breaks could pull the Latics down into the relegation battle, but more likely they will have one or two good runs of form that will be just enough to safely ensconce them in the 13-16 range of the table. 


On Wolves, currently 19th;

Blackpool

Blackpool currently sit twelfth in the league table, with a relatively impressive 18 points from 14 matches.  They have been a scoring threat, with 21 goals, but they have conceded 27, the most in the league.  It has been a wild ride so far though.  Way back on August 4th, I wrote this about the Seasiders;

There will be a draw against a big team, maybe even a home win against a top 4 side, an inspiring performance away from home in London or Manchester, and a lot of fun afternoons that the supporters should make sure they enjoy, because this is a one season adventure.

35 Points

I have written here and in other venues that 35 points would probably be enough to stay in the Premier League this season. This past weekend Bolton came from behind to triumph 2-1 over Stoke City. This win put us squarely on 35 points. 7 points clear of the relegation zone with 3 matches left. It has been an inconsistent season to say the least. Owen Coyle came in late in January and seemed to stabilize the club as a whole, although the results were still very mixed.

I am hoping Coyle will use the last few matches to give our fringe players a run in the team. This will help the club to determine whether to bring these players back next season, as well as showcase them for any potential suitors. This would be my preferred starting XI against Portsmouth on Saturday;

Al-Habsi

Hunt, Shittu, Cahill, Samuel

Weiss, Mumba, Wilshere, Riga

Klasnic, Elmander

Stoke City v Bolton Wanderers

This one may not be pretty. Stoke seem to be following the Bolton model from the Sam Allardyce era, and they are trying to secure mid-tabe stability for the second season in a row. The Wanderers under Owen Coyle, on the other hand, are still looking pensively over their shoulders. They are 5 points clear of the relegation zone with 4 matches to play. I think most of those around the club are fairly confident of survival, but a result today would go a long way towards fortifying Bolton's position.

Coyle has named an unchanged squad from Tuesday's match against Chelsea, which means we will see a 5 man midfield, with Jack Wilshere the primary support for Kevin Davies. I am skeptical of this Sam Ricketts as a holding midfielder experiment Owen Coyle seems to be trying, but the performance overall was very good against Chelsea, and their is plenty of attacking potential on the bench in Ivan Klasnic, Johann Elmander, and Vladimir Weiss, so let's hope for the best.

Jlloyd Samuel

Let me start by saying I think Jlloyd Samuel is a good left-back. He is not outstanding, but he is competent, and that is often all we can ask for at a smaller club like Bolton Wanderers. Well, that and a pork pie vendor inside the ground. For most of the season I have actually felt that he was our best option at LB, but Gary Megson preferred to play Paul Robinson (who was terrible for the first few months of the season, and who may in fact be the worst professional footballer I have ever seen).

When Megson was removed and Coyle came in it looked like Samuel might get a chance to re-establish himself, but Coyle moved Sam Ricketts to LB, and he put in some good performances. The Gary Cahill got a blood clot in his arm, Ricketts moved into the middle, and again it looked as if Samuel would finally get his chance. But no, Coyle went back to Paul Robinson, who performed better than he had under Megson, but still seemed to be a disaster waiting to happen in my opinion.

So, when Robinson picked up an injury last week and Coyle moved Samuel into the starting LB spot, I was pleased. Honestly, to give a player his first start in 3 months against Manchester United is a bit unfair, but Samuel (Really, the whole team) played well in the first half. Until a ball came in from the left in the 40th minute. It got past Darren Fletcher, who had made a good run into the box and Samuel, running towards his own goal, tried to put it behind for a corner. Unfortunately, instead of putting it behind on his side of the goal, he tried to play the ball out across the face of goal. He was a bit off, and passed it beautifully into the bottom corner for an Own Goal.

Was it a lack of match sharpness that caused this error? I think so. Last season, Samuel started all 38 league matches and was as steady as they come. He has not shown a previous penchant for putting the ball in his own net. I just hope Owen Coyle does not relegate Samuel to the subs bench for the remainder of the season. I still think he is a better choice than Paul Robinson at left-back, and Bolton will need all players fit and ready to contribute in order to ensure another season of top flight football.

Bolton Wanderers 4 Wigan Athletic 0

Brilliant result for the Wanderers! And the play was outstanding as well. Wigan had a few bright moments, Hugo Rodellega was a constant threat, but overall Bolton really dominated the match. And the onslaught of goals can only help the player's confidence, especially considering who scored them.

Johann Elmander scored the first. I don't know that any player has ever needed a goal more than he did. Hopefully he will build on this moving forward. In fact, I predict he will do so emphatically. My bold proclamation is that he will score 5 goals in the next 8 matches, and finish with 10 in all competitions for the season.

Fabrice Muamba has been a rock defensively for most of the season. He defended well under gary Megson, but offered nothing going forward in Megson's ultra-conservative system. Even when he has gotten forward more under Coyle fans behind the goal have been well advised to wear helmets. But recently his composure on the ball has improved, and his supreme athleticism and pace allows him to get into excellent positions. If he starts offering something going forward, the 21-year-old immediately becomes one of the top holding midfielders in the Premier League.

But the immediate news for the Wanderers and their supporters is that the club has put some considerable distance between itself and the relegation zone. And, given results elsewhere, Bolton can start to look at catching clubs above them, rather than nervously glancing back at the clubs behind them.

Bolton Wanderers v Wigan Athletic

It's another relegation 6 pointer for Bolton as they host a Wigan side who are loaded with confidence after defeating Liverpool on Monday. Bolton have had to make some changes as Sam Ricketts is suspended.

Andy O'Brien (a disaster waiting to happen) comes into central defense, which does not bode well for the Wanderers.

Tamir Cohen returns from suspension and steps right into central midfield. Cohen has been solid, if unspectacular, this season. A large part of the support has not taken to him, but Bolton's best performances this season have come with him on the pitch.

Johann Elmander has been playing quite well, but still has struggled to find the back of the net, his fine strike for Sweden notwithstanding, and if he misses another tap-in this week the predictable groans and Ivan Klasnic chants from the moodier amongst the supporters will only serve to sap his confidence even further.

Speaking of moody, winger Vladimir Weiss is one again starting from the bench, which the 20-year-old will be unhappy about. I would like to see both he and Mustapha Riga get a solid chance to show what they can do, but injuries and red cards the past few weeks have prevented it.

As for relegation, Burnley and Wolves also face each other today, and they will be even more desperate than Wigan and Bolton for 3 points. We could see both these matches drawn, which is fairly common for these high pressure encounters, but if Wigan or Bolton manage to take all 3 points they will go a long way towards securing top flight football for next season. For me, the traditional 40 point threshold will put a club 13th or 14th in the table at the end of this season. A win for Bolton would give them 32 points, and while they should't pack up their boots and go on holiday if that happens, 32 points may keep you up this season.